Gang of 12 Updates

Lacking Transparency
The Gang of 12 is being criticized for lack of transparency (here). Aside from the three public meetings the committee held in September, the calendar for the month of October is blank, with no hearing scheduled. While they are not meeting publicly, the members are meeting behind closed doors.

Deadlock May Prevent Deal
While the members of the Gang of 12 are secretive about their talks, some lawmakers, aides and lobbyists closely tracking the committee are increasingly skeptic and pessimistic that the panel will be able to meet its goal of at least $1.2 trillion in deficit savings over the next 10 years as they are running up against a familiar deadlock over taxes and cuts to major programs like the Medicare and Medicaid health care programs for the elderly, poor and disabled (here).

But the good news is that Democrats are more insistent on revenues now (here). "There's been no movement on revenues and I'm not sure the Democrats will agree to anything without revenues," a Democratic lobbyist who required anonymity to speak candidly (here).

Deadline is "Phony" 
According to Jonathan Bernstein of the Washington Post, the Thanksgiving deadline is a bit
"phony."  According to Bernstein, "nothing happens after the deadline that can’t be undone if and when Congress chooses to do so. Even if legislators actually let sequestration eventually begin, they can always go back and undo cuts, either selectively or entirely, or they can cut a deal then for everything going forward." Therefore, Bernstein writes that it’s "certainly possible that stories of deadlock are themselves trial balloons to test whether one or the other side would prefer a deadlock to making a deal."

Sounds like what Ellen Nissenbaum said last week on the Tides/Greenlining conference call.

Secrets Not So Secretive
John Judson of the Atlantic Wire, writes that the secrets of the Super Committee is not so secret. His article outlines what we've learned so far:

August: The committee was created as part of a deficit reduction deal between Republicans and Democrats to reduce the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion. Campaign finance details about what groups and organizations were bankrolling the Super Committee members began being circulated.

Sept 30: The committee beings meeting in secret As Washington's curiosity heightened, the legislators stayed silent though many suspected they were meeting, as Noel Brinkerhoff at All Gov reported. Early calls for transparency came from John Wonderlich at the Sunlight Foundation, a watchdog group, who said members were meeting in secret and subsequently "denying that they’re holding meetings, in order to avoid longstanding requirements that those meetings be public"

October 2: A grand bargain is ruled out Politico's Manu Raju and John Bresnahan get the scoop from sources from Republican Senator Jon Kyl. They say a deal in the ballpark of $3 trillion or $4 trillion can't be reached because Republicans don't want a significant tax hike and Democrats don't want significant reductions in Social Security and Medicare.

After four private meetings and two public hearings, Kyl is convinced that the three House Democrats on the supercommittee — Reps. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, Xavier Becerra of California and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland — are not interested in a deal on taxes because of their demands for more revenue, sources say. Kyl has not ruled out taking up tax reform as part of any supercommittee proposal, although he knows time is running short on those deliberations.

October 5: A deal is likely!  Sources told Reuters that Republicans were "open to talking about revenue increases" and members of the committee hinted that a deal could be made.

Democrat, Senator John Kerry, hinted that an outline for the negotiations had been sketched out. "I don't want to discuss the framework. I don't think that's constructive," he said, adding, "We're obviously meeting a lot. We're going to become even more intense in those meetings now."

October 7: Committee members receive influx of cash It pays to be on the Super Committee. Susanna Kim at ABC News reports that the members "received over $83,000 from lobbying groups in the three weeks after being appointed to make $1.2 trillion in budget cuts."

October 10, a deal is unlikely! The Super Committee is gridlocked, reported Andrew Taylor at The Associated Press.

Democrats won't go for an agreement that doesn't include new tax revenue; Republicans are just as ardently antitax. The impasse over revenues means that Democrats won't agree to cuts to popular entitlement programs like Medicare ...

"There's been no movement on (new) revenues, and I'm not sure the Democrats will agree to anything without revenues," said a Democratic lobbyist who required anonymity to speak candidly.


October 10: Committee may slash Medicare Donna Smith at Reuters gets the scoop from a lobbyist who "has been following" the deliberations:

Medicare supplemental health plans, popular among politically powerful retirees, could come under the budget knife... The so-called "Medigap" insurance plans shield the elderly -- many living on fixed incomes -- from costly deductibles and other expenses not covered by the traditional fee-for-service Medicare healthcare program. "This one is clearly on the table," said a lobbyist...