Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Democrats Offer Significant Concessions, says CBPP


According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the new deficit-reduction plan from several Democrats on the Gang of 12 marks a dramatic departure from traditional Democratic positions — and actually stands well to the right of plans by the co-chairs of the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson commission and the Senate's "Gang of Six," and even further to the right of the plan by the bipartisan Rivlin-Domenici commission. See the side-by-side comparison in two tables below.


Table 1:
COMPARISON OF DEFICIT-REDUCTION PROPOSALS
Savings in Billions of Dollars, 2012-2021, Relative to Current-Policy Baseline

Bowles-Simpson
Gang of Six
Democratic Offer1
Revenue Increases
2,238
2,064
1,300
Medicare and Medicaid2
402
500
475
Other Mandatory Programs3
(including chained-CPI proposal)
364
373
385
Discretionary4
1,295
1,165
1,300
Subtotal, Spending Cuts
2,061
2,038
2,160
Debt Service Savings
796
783
664
Deficit Reduction
5,095
4,885
4,124
1 Figures for the Democratic offer do not include economic stimulus proposals, the details of which are not available but apparently include both temporary tax-cut measures (like an extended payroll tax reduction) and temporary spending increases (like an extension of federal unemployment benefits).
2 The Gang of Six plan showed two alternative levels of health cuts, $500 billion and $383 billion.
3 The Bowles-Simpson plan includes the cost of repealing CLASS, whose implementation has now been suspended by the Administration.
4 The Democratic offer is adjusted to include $900 billion in discretionary savings enacted in the April continuing resolution and the Budget Control Act, for comparability with the other two plans. The Fiscal Commission and the Gang of Six plans measure discretionary savings relative to CBO's March baseline. Sources: Estimates for Bowles-Simpson plan are from Moment of Truth Project, Updated Estimates of the Fiscal Commission Proposal, June 29, 2011. Estimates for the Gang of Six plan are from material provided by staff. Estimates for the Democratic offer are based on press accounts. Estimates have been adjusted by CBPP staff to put them on a comparable basis.


Table 2:
COMPARISON OF DEFICIT-REDUCTION PROPOSAL
Savings in Billions of Dollars, 2012-2021, Relative to Fiscal Commission's Plausible Baseline

Bowles-Simpson
Gang of Six
Democratic Offer 1
Revenue Increases
1,372
1,198
434
Medicare and Medicaid2
402
500
475
Other Mandatory Programs3
(including chained-CPI proposal)
364
373
385
Discretionary4
1,295
1,165
1,300
Subtotal, Spending Cuts
2,061
2,038
2,160
Debt Service Savings
621
608
489
Deficit Reduction
4,054
3,844
3,083
1 Figures for the Democratic offer do not include economic stimulus proposals, the details of which are not available but apparently include both temporary tax-cut measures (like an extended payroll tax reduction) and temporary spending increases (like an extension of federal unemployment benefits).
2 The Gang of Six plan showed two alternative levels of health cuts, $500 billion and $383 billion.
3 The Bowles-Simpson plan includes the cost of repealing CLASS, whose implementation has now been suspended by the Administration.
4 The Democratic offer is adjusted to include $900 billion in discretionary savings enacted in the April continuing resolution and the Budget Control Act, for comparability with the other two plans. The Fiscal Commission and the Gang of Six plans measure discretionary savings relative to CBO's March baseline. Sources: Estimates for Bowles-Simpson plan are from Moment of Truth Project, Updated Estimates of the Fiscal Commission Proposal, June 29, 2011. Estimates for the Gang of Six plan are from material provided by staff. Estimates for the Democratic offer are based on press accounts. Estimates have been adjusted by CBPP staff to put them on a comparable basis.

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